Despite the UK exiting recession, 2011 is predicted to be characterised by "painfully slow growth, falling living standards, and prolonged high unemployment" (John Philpott, Chief Economic Advisor, CIPD).

The rise in VAT to 20% could lead to the loss of 200,000 jobs across the UK (based on prediction from Ortus) and every village, town and city is likely to suffer to a greater or lesser extent.

In the absence of a strong private-sector jobs recovery, headline unemployment could near the 3 million mark by 2012.

So what does this mean for Harrogate Employers, Harrogate Jobs and Redundancies in Harrogate?

In regions outside of London & the South East, the public sector has been the primary driver in growth. Over the last ten years, 75% of new jobs created in the North of England were in that sector.  In Harrogate tens of thousands of jobs are in the public sector, but most significantly, these jobs account for over 20% of all the Harrogate workforce. With workforce growth in the public sector highly unlikely, can the private sector in Harrogate keep the economic recovery on track?

Well, the Harrogate economy is quite diverse and doesn't entirely rely on the public sector or indeed for that matter the private sector alone. A lot of the Harrogate economy obviously centres around the business to business and conference industry! Harrogate is actually home to some of the top conference and event venues in Europe and as a result is actually home to many hundreds of business conferences each and every year.

Notably, Harrogate has the "Harrogate International Centre", the third largest integrated conference and exhibition centre in the UK. The famous Harrogate International Centre alone is home to more than one hundred and fifty conferences, attracting more than three hundred and fifty thousand visitors every year! This superb facility brings in over one hundred and fifty million pounds to the local economy on an annual basis!

Don't let this overshadow the strength in depth the Harrogate Conference Industry has though. Harrogate is home to a whole host of top class conference and business hosting facilities in addition to the jewel in the Harrogate economic crown.

So Harrogate clearly caters for the business market, but it has also got a massive tourism industry too. Attracting in the region of three hundred and fifty thousand visitors a year, the Harrogate tourism industry employs around twenty one thousand, roughly 30% of Harrogate employment. As you would expect these jobs are in Harrogate restaurants, Harrogate Hotels and other Harrogate tourism related businesses.

Harrogate businesses in the Financial services sector make up around 18% of the employment market and manufacturing makes up for a further 12% of the market. As noted earlier the public sector is significant too; including administration, health and education the public sector accounts for roughly 24% of the Harrogate employment market.

Although the Harrogate economy is still facing a challenging 12 - 18 months, Harrogate jobs are in more supply than previously and holding on to the best people remains one of the key concerns for Harrogate employers.

To summarise it is still too early to judge the effect recent budgets will have on the economic growth in the local Yorkshire economy and on the Harrogate jobs market 2011. All previous market forecasts are having to be adjusted accordingly.

Much forecast modelling is being completed by various sources and government bodies and although there are some differences the main point to note is that 2011 is going to be another tough year for Harrogate businesses and Harrogate Job seekers alike.

The inevitable slow down in the public sector will add pressure onto the private sector to absorb this. However, with the high headline numbers it is very unlikely that it will be able too.

As will be the pattern in the rest of the UK, only when the nervousness around entering a "double-dip" recession has passed, will we truly start to see the signs of the Harrogate jobs market becoming more buoyant, as Harrogate Job candidates are still reluctant to give up their current jobs and move elsewhere.

Harrogate employers should be finding/expecting that candidates who find themselves out of work are much more flexible on working terms and willing to adjust lifestyles for work. However, caution should be taken here though as an "any job will do" attitude and thus lack of commitment is clearly not desirable.

All in all Harrogate should be well placed to thrive as a centre for Harrogate Business, Harrogate Tourism and above all a place of beauty!